16196 Branco Dr

Burnt Store Marina, FL 33955

$387,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,031 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,029
• Tax + insurance: −$645
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-584/mo
• Annual: $-7,008/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.47%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $108,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $387k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-584 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $267k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#354 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 761 students, 52% FRL); Punta Gorda Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,120 students, 41% FRL); Charlotte High School (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,994 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1490 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $387k implies a 1038% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.