4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 2007
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,018/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$881
Tax + insurance
−$280
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$424
Net cashflow
$433/mo
Annual
$5,196/yr
Cap rate
9.39%
Cash-on-cash
11.05%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$47,040
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#327 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Traceys Elementary (math 13% / reading 15%, grade F, #513 of 860 statewide, top 60%, 437 students, 60% FRL); Southern Middle (math 8% / reading 39%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 755 students, 45% FRL); Southern High (math 52% / reading 73%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,066 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 25% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).
Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XCX5006VJ968S7
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29