6735 Mangrove Dr

Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$231,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,216
• Tax + insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,622/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $64,932

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $232k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $232k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.