8106 Fort Hunt Rd

Fort Hunt, VA 22308

$619,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,246
• Tax + insurance: −$931
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $-774/mo
• Annual: $-9,283/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $173,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $619k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $482k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $431k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $431k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#182 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $619k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Fort Hunt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?