2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,156 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$979/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$315
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$206
Net cashflow
$384/mo
Annual
$4,606/yr
Cap rate
13.97%
Cash-on-cash
27.42%
DSCR
2.22
1% rule
1.63%
Cash to close
$16,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Creswell Elementary School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #516 of 646 statewide, top 82%, 250 students, 81% FRL); Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); C.E. Byrd High School (math 44% / reading 55%, grade D, #37 of 265 statewide, top 14%, 1,526 students, 43% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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