83 Pindo Palm Dr

Nocatee, FL 32081

$414,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,789 sqft · Built 2016 · Townhouse · Active Under Contract · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$322
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-521/mo
• Annual: $-6,248/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $115,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $414k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $838 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Palm Valley Academy (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,496 students, 7% FRL); Alice B. Landrum Middle School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A+, #14 of 571 statewide, top 2%, 1,142 students, 3% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools average 5% FRL vs 20% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.