8451 Steve Johnson Dr

St. Francisville, LA 70775

$60,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $643/mo
• Annual: $7,713/yr
• Cap rate: 19.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.91%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Feliciana Parish (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #10 of 98 in LA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bains Elementary School (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C-, #108 of 646 statewide, top 18%, 803 students, 47% FRL); West Feliciana Middle School (math 45% / reading 54%, grade C, #28 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 474 students, 43% FRL); West Feliciana High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #33 of 265 statewide, top 12%, 650 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in West Feliciana Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• West Feliciana County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 2.0% in St. Francisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.