8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1201-B

Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$189,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 533 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,530/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$742
• HOA: −$581
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-1,105/mo
• Annual: $-13,259/yr
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.38%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $29k (84.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 533 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (84.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 0.9% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 533 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 85% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?