2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
704 sqft ·
Built 1948
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 82 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$809/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$53
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$170
Net cashflow
$193/mo
Annual
$2,310/yr
Cap rate
9.37%
Cash-on-cash
11.00%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($809 rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#340 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Bald Knob School District (rural): math 33% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #144 of 238 in AR (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 219 units permitted in White County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
White County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Bald Knob — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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