208 John R

Kennett, MO 63857

$75,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,707/yr
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.89%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($854 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#561 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime F.
• Kennett 39 (town): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #262 of 324 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Dunklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dunklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 6.5% in Kennett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.