2833 Orinoco Ct SW

Altoona, IA 50009

$205,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$363
• HOA: −$184
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-451/mo
• Annual: $-5,410/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (38.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (27.7% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#85 in IA, #1,757 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Southeast Polk Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #70 of 289 in IA (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Willowbrook Elementary (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #313 of 616 statewide, top 51%, 533 students, 50% FRL); Southeast Polk Junior High (math 74% / reading 71%, grade A, #90 of 246 statewide, top 38%, 1,088 students, 37% FRL); Southeast Polk High School (math 65% / reading 74%, grade B, #152 of 336 statewide, top 52%, 2,353 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 23% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 310 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.