469 Eatontown Rd

Otisville, NY 12771

$285,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,412 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$841
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,427/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#459 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otisville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 589 students, 30% FRL); Minisink Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 775 students, 28% FRL); Minisink Valley High School (math 94% / reading 75%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,172 students, 28% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 6233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.4% in Otisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,594/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 792% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?