4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,150 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,526/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$813
Tax + insurance
−$148
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$320
Net cashflow
$244/mo
Annual
$2,934/yr
Cap rate
8.19%
Cash-on-cash
6.76%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$43,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (1.6% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $153k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#548 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Polo CUSD 222 (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #210 of 620 in IL (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $39k; list at $155k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XFM9BWEA92MF5H
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29