1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
518 sqft ·
Built 1950
· Condo
· Pending
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,200/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$416
HOA
−$515
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$462
Net cashflow
$-504/mo
Annual
$-6,048/yr
Cap rate
3.87%
Cash-on-cash
-8.64%
DSCR
0.62
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-504 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.0% below list).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?