203 Kirkaldy Dr

Cloverleaf, TX 77015

$216,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,296 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,137
• Tax + insurance: −$497
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-93/mo
• Annual: $-1,118/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $60,732

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $217k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#886 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James B Havard El (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 664 students, 82% FRL); North Shore Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,260 students, 87% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Cloverleaf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?