7858 Sierra Dr

Belding, MI 48809

$330,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 2024 · Condo · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$461
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-1,161/mo
• Annual: $-13,933/yr
• Cap rate: 2.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.08%
• DSCR: 0.33
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (62.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (57.6% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $125k (62.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in MI, #4,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Belding Area School District (town): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #398 of 540 in MI (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Ionia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ionia County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 4.5% in Belding — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.