315 S Vista Dr S

Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX 78383

$142,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,551/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $39,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• George West ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George West Pri (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #110 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 396 students, 68% FRL); George West El (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 249 students, 64% FRL); George West H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 280 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.