599 Twin Oaks Rd

Thomson, GA 30824

$76,800B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax + insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,723/yr
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $21,504

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $531 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#357 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Mcduffie County (rural): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #156 of 174 in GA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 64 units permitted in McDuffie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McDuffie County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 15 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $77k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.8% in Thomson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.