201 W E St

Alpha, IL 61413

$139,500D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-465/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $39,060

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($964 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#815 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Alwood CUSD 225 (rural): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #428 of 919 in IL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alwood Elem School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #940 of 2,056 statewide, top 49%, 188 students, 0% FRL); Alwood Middle/High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 175 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.