16444 Bolsa Chica #21

Huntington Beach, CA 92649

$213,900B-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,533/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $1,313/mo
• Annual: $15,752/yr
• Cap rate: 13.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.30%
• DSCR: 2.17
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $59,892

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $214k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $214k).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#306 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Ocean View (suburban): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #207 of 1,400 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Village View Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 361 students, 44% FRL); Marine View Middle (568 students, 47% FRL); Marina High (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #104 of 1,170 statewide, top 9%, 2,089 students, 45% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 60% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ocean View average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $214k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 1.6% in Huntington Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.