2141 E Hill Rd

Burton, MI 48439

$225,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,795 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-204/mo
• Annual: $-2,448/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (19.1% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Grand Blanc Community Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #149 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 434 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 15 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.