11560 Sage St

Adelanto, CA 92301

$650,000D

9 bd · 3.9 ba · 2,895 sqft · Built 1985 · MultiFamily · Active · 726 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,112
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,036/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.3-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $29/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $530k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 726 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $530k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 615 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $392k; list at $650k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Adelanto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,295/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 726 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?