102 Lakewood Dr

Evergreen, AL 36401

$120,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,037/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#488 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conecuh County (rural): math 7% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #111 of 129 in AL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Conecuh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Conecuh County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $120k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.3% in Evergreen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.