154 Weed Ave

New York, NY 10306

$1,250,000D+

12 bd · 4.8 ba · 3,120 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax + insurance: −$1,770
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,379
• Net cashflow: $624/mo
• Annual: $7,490/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $350,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $1.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $156/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.21M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 2 George L Egbert (math 40% / reading 65%, grade C+, #235 of 729 statewide, top 33%, 934 students, 74% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $840k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,328/mo this rent would consume 140% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?