1861 County Road 1333

Liberty, TX 77575

$94,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-230/yr
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $26,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-230/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (3.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#489 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 684 students, 69% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 557 students, 68% FRL); Liberty H S (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 707 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.6% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.