2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,012 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,252/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$218
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$263
Net cashflow
$326/mo
Annual
$3,908/yr
Cap rate
11.83%
Cash-on-cash
19.77%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $1k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $858 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XM3YD7DENBW1DP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29