176 Dave Williams Rd

Riceboro, GA 31320

$95,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $548/mo
• Annual: $6,577/yr
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.73%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#467 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #797 of 1,228 statewide, top 65%, 737 students, 65% FRL); Lewis Frasier Middle School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 779 students, 73% FRL); Liberty County High School (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #131 of 424 statewide, top 31%, 1,077 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.