13244 Arnold Rd

Walker, LA 70785

$211,600C-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,110
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-646/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $59,248

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $212k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-646/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.