4964 Cedar Creek Rd

Fayetteville, NC 28312

$55,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $983/mo
• Annual: $11,791/yr
• Cap rate: 27.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.57%
• DSCR: 4.41
• 1% rule: 3.27%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Seabrook Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 269 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.