200 S 4th St

Millville, NJ 08332

$269,900D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $110/mo
• Annual: $1,323/yr
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#431 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Millville School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #447 of 472 in NJ (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: R. M. Bacon Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,235 of 1,303 statewide, top 96%, 258 students, 81% FRL); Lakeside Middle School (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #405 of 431 statewide, top 95%, 987 students, 70% FRL); Millville Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #327 of 399 statewide, top 82%, 1,640 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $270k implies a 507% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Millville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.