425 38th St

Columbus, GA 31904

$75,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $233/mo
• Annual: $2,795/yr
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($904 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#254 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Muscogee County (urban): math 21% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #120 of 174 in GA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fox Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,228 statewide, top 100%, 343 students, 96% FRL); Double Churches Middle School (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #368 of 470 statewide, top 79%, 413 students, 97% FRL); Jordan Vocational High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #342 of 424 statewide, top 81%, 869 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 61% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 26% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Muscogee County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 291 units permitted in Muscogee County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muscogee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.