4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,720 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,650/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,316
Tax + insurance
−$418
HOA
−$50
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$556
Net cashflow
$309/mo
Annual
$3,707/yr
Cap rate
7.77%
Cash-on-cash
5.27%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$70,280
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $251k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.