729 Obrien St

Monroe, MI 48161

$129,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,141 sqft · Built 1863 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $119/mo
• Annual: $1,422/yr
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in MI, #1,034 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Monroe Public Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #278 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arborwood Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #980 of 1,397 statewide, top 74%, 435 students, 83% FRL); Monroe Middle School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade C, #127 of 493 statewide, top 26%, 653 students, 66% FRL); Monroe High School (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #364 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,304 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1863 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 21 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $130k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.0% in Monroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1863 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.