11811 N 19th Ave #18

Phoenix, AZ 85029

$55,000B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,297/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $644/mo
• Annual: $7,731/yr
• Cap rate: 20.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.20%
• DSCR: 3.23
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $644 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shaw Butte School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,109 statewide, top 92%, 682 students, 84% FRL); Royal Palm Middle School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 536 students, 93% FRL); Sunnyslope High School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #88 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 2,281 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Visible signs of wear
• Major: flooring — Worn carpet
• Major: interior walls/paint — Worn paint