3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,694 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,832/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,169
Tax + insurance
−$380
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$385
Net cashflow
$-102/mo
Annual
$-1,222/yr
Cap rate
5.74%
Cash-on-cash
-1.96%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$62,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (8.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (17.9% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $183k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#64 in MN, #1,570 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D.
Red Wing Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #220 of 301 in MN (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Burnside Elementary (math 47% / reading 50%, grade D, #480 of 857 statewide, top 56%, 522 students, 42% FRL); Twin Bluff School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #147 of 258 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 37% FRL); Red Wing Senior High (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #280 of 471 statewide, top 59%, 866 students, 37% FRL).
Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Goodhue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Goodhue County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $157k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Red Wing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XP4T7B8VHW87WP
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29