2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
787 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,756/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$853
HOA
−$1,241
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$579
Net cashflow
$-698/mo
Annual
$-8,380/yr
Cap rate
6.06%
Cash-on-cash
-0.84%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
1.85%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $29k (80.3% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $29k (80.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in HI, #4,968 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wailuku Elementary School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #143 of 183 statewide, top 78%, 562 students, 64% FRL); Iao Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 43%, grade F, #28 of 42 statewide, top 66%, 780 students, 50% FRL); Henry Perrine Baldwin High School (math 30% / reading 57%, grade F, #23 of 43 statewide, top 52%, 1,338 students, 43% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo; HOA is 45% of rent.
Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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