Maple Plan

Pensacola, FL 32526

$348,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 254 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,467/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,013
• Tax + insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-770/mo
• Annual: $-9,239/yr
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $107,458

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-770 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary School (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 946 students, 57% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pensacola — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.