9400 S Congress St S

New Market, VA 22844

$365,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,398 sqft · Built 1860 · Other · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,754/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-781/mo
• Annual: $-9,372/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-781 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (52.0% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (52.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#372 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 14 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $365k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.