46304 Skyline Ridge Rd

Coarsegold, CA 93614

$250,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $429/mo
• Annual: $5,152/yr
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#474 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Yosemite Unified (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #321 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coarsegold Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,420 of 1,571 statewide, top 91%, 271 students, 70% FRL); Yosemite High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 553 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 38% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Coarsegold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.