815 E Cranford Ave #3

Valdosta, GA 31602

$149,900B+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,544 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,811/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $1,185/mo
• Annual: $14,217/yr
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.87%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 1×1.0bd/1.0ba + 2×2.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $395/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Nunn Elementary (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #973 of 1,228 statewide, top 80%, 901 students, 93% FRL); Newbern Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #405 of 470 statewide, top 86%, 806 students, 95% FRL); Valdosta High School (math 7% / reading 24%, grade F, #290 of 424 statewide, top 69%, 2,381 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 74% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,811/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2034% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen flooring — damaged and peeling
• Major: bathroom flooring — damaged and peeling
• Major: bathroom walls — paint peeling
• Minor: exterior siding — some discoloration