3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,505 sqft ·
Built 1957
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 308 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,766/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$902
Tax + insurance
−$226
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$371
Net cashflow
$268/mo
Annual
$3,210/yr
Cap rate
8.16%
Cash-on-cash
6.67%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$48,160
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $96k; list at $172k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XQGFGK19152GRS
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29