The Johnson Plan

Haslet, TX 76052

$535,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,813 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,543
• Tax + insurance: −$1,126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $-1,543/mo
• Annual: $-18,510/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $189,148

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $536k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#538 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Haslet El (math 42% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 884 students, 25% FRL); Truett Wilson Middle (math 51% / reading 45%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,414 students, 30% FRL); V R Eaton H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,273 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.9% in Haslet — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.