4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 142 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,069/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$860
Tax + insurance
−$137
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$434
Net cashflow
$637/mo
Annual
$7,641/yr
Cap rate
10.95%
Cash-on-cash
16.64%
DSCR
1.74
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$45,920
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#874 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Everglades Elementary School (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 760 students, 76% FRL); Osceola Middle School (math 53% / reading 36%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 753 students, 67% FRL); Okeechobee High School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,692 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $164k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.1% in Taylor Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,069/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 399% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XQPY9E62J2YV00
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29