413 E St Paul St

Spring Valley, IL 61362

$35,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $519/mo
• Annual: $6,223/yr
• Cap rate: 24.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.50%
• DSCR: 3.83
• 1% rule: 2.86%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#388 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hall Hsd 502 (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #549 of 919 in IL (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hall High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 403 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 17 units permitted in Bureau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bureau County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.