303 Brunswick Ave

Blackstone, VA 23824

$215,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,658 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $255/mo
• Annual: $3,061/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.08%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nottoway County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #109 of 131 in VA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blackstone Primary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 387 students, 92% FRL); Nottoway Middle (math 30% / reading 55%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 263 students, 98% FRL); Nottoway High (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 536 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 56% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 57 units permitted in Nottoway County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nottoway County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Blackstone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.