Adalynn Plan

Amarillo, TX 79118

$267,950D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 423 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-736/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $75,026

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-736/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 423 days — a 12% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 423 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.