133 Hawley St

Lockport, NY 14094

$120,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1870 · MultiFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $2,009/mo
• Annual: $24,106/yr
• Cap rate: 26.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.74%
• DSCR: 4.19
• 1% rule: 3.00%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $205k (63%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,596/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1112% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No photos of roof, but based on exterior condition, likely in poor condition
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos of interior, but based on exterior condition, likely in poor condition
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC, but based on exterior condition, likely in poor condition
• Major: landscaping — Unkempt and overgrown