3643 A1a S

St. Augustine Beach, FL 32080

$495,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$791
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,003
• Net cashflow: $386/mo
• Annual: $4,630/yr
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $450k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 535 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $495k implies a 843% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in St. Augustine Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,776/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 417% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.