1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
500 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Condo
· Pending
· 320 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,382/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$383
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,130
Net cashflow
$2,662/mo
Annual
$31,945/yr
Cap rate
20.18%
Cash-on-cash
49.60%
DSCR
3.21
1% rule
2.34%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $230k).
It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,382/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 2685% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XTZ0R53675HC33
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29