1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
672 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,608/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$288
HOA
−$518
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$338
Net cashflow
$-426/mo
Annual
$-5,113/yr
Cap rate
3.28%
Cash-on-cash
-10.75%
DSCR
0.52
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (44.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.3% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $95k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $141k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,608/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-XV369ECXM6E8GH
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29